News Arctic: El Niño

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Showing posts with label El Niño. Show all posts

Friday, 7 April 2017

Gulf Stream is heating up

El Niño 2017 is strengthening. On March 24, temperatures in Africa were as high as 50.6°C or 123°F.

The image below shows wildfires hitting Northern China and Far East Russia on April 4, 2017. The Amur River, which forms the boundary between China and Russia, is visible on this Terra/MODIS satellite image, with red dots indicating wildfires.

Emissions associated with such wildfires can be huge, as illustrated by the image below. On April 4, 2017, sulfur dioxide (SO₂) levels were as high as 766.29 µg/m³ at a spot (marked by the green circle, left panel) north of the Amur River, in Russia, while carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels were as high as 513 parts per million at that same spot and carbon monoxide (CO) levels there were as high as 17,402 parts per billion.

These high sulfur dioxide levels indicate that sulfur that has over the past few decades been deposited there from smokestacks of coal-fired power plants, tailpipes of vehicles, etc., can re-enter the atmosphere as a result of wildfires, confirming the conclusion of earlier studies such as by Hegg et al.

This indicates that sulfur levels in the atmosphere are higher than previously estimated, given that most previous estimates were mainly based on real-time emissions from industrial activity at the time. When adding revolitalization of previously-deposited sulfur (due to wildfires) into the picture, estimates for such aerosols' masking effect of the full wrath of global warming will be higher than previously thought, and increasingly so, as wildfires are becoming painfully more common as Earth continues to warm up.

This also implies that it becomes increasingly plausible that, when aerosol levels suddenly drop during heatwaves, wet bulb temperature starts crossing sustainability limits for humans without air-conditioning. Note that in July 2016, weather conditions at a spot in the U.S. came perilously close to this limit.

What could further contribute strongly to a rapid rise in global temperature is the combination of decline of Earth's snow and ice cover and eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

The Gulf Stream is heating up as the 2017 El Niño strengthens, fueled by record low global sea ice extent, which means that a lot of extra heat is getting absorbed globally (image below, by Wipneus).

Both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent were are record low on April 1, 2017, as the images below show.

Sea surface temperatures were as much as 5.9°C or 10.6°F warmer than 1981-2011 at the location marked by the green circle on the image below.

Over the next half year, increasingly warm waters will be carried by the Gulf Stream from the coast of North America to the Arctic Ocean. As this warmer water arrives in the Arctic Ocean, there will no longer be a large buffer of sea ice there to consume the heat, as was common for the past thousands of years and longer. Additionally, warmer water looks set to arrive in an Arctic Ocean that will be heated up like we've never seen before, as so much of the sunlight reaching the surface of the Arctic Ocean doesn't get reflected back into space anymore and as temperatures again look set to reach record highs in the Arctic during the northern summer.

Where can all this extra heat go? Sea ice will start sealing off much of the surface of the Arctic Ocean by the end of September 2017, making it hard for more heat to escape the Arctic Ocean by entering the atmosphere. The extremely dangerous situation is that it looks like much of the extra heat will instead reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean that contain huge amounts of methane in currently still frozen hydrates.

An image in an earlier post showed many cracks in the sea ice north of Greenland. Above image shows that huge cracks are also present in the sea ice in the Beaufort Sea.

On the combination images above and below, high concentrations of methane show up all over the Arctic Ocean, specifically over the Beaufort Sea and over and around Greenland. Note also the methane showing up over Antarctica, as discussed in an earlier post.

Thursday, 16 February 2017

More heat on the way

Above image shows temperature anomalies over the Pacific Ocean on February 12, 2017. Note the 19.2°C (34.5 °F) anomaly off the coast of Japan, at the location marked by the green circle.

In 2016, the annually-averaged temperature for ocean surfaces around the world was 0.75°C (1.35°F) higher than the 20th century average, higher than the previous record of 2015, NOAA reports. The global annual land surface temperature for 2016 was 1.43°C (2.57°F) above the 20th century average, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by 0.11°C (0.19°F). Note that NOAA uses the the 20th century average as a baseline, for more on different baselines, see this earlier post.

There is more heat on the way, as illustrated by the image below.

As above image shows, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) temporarily raises (El Niño) or suppresses (La Niña) global temperatures. Generally, the stronger the event (El Niño or La Niña), the greater its impact on the average global temperature around that time. Note that one value for 2016 literally went off the chart.

As above image shows (at the end of the graph on the right), we’ve barely had a bit of a La Niña in 2017 and we’re already facing another El Niño event.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Above images shows ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) plumes with strong positive anomalies in all three El Niño regions (on the right).

In other words, temperatures in 2017 look set to be very high, which spells bad news for the Arctic where temperature anomalies are already several times higher than in the rest of the world, as illustrated by the image below.

As the image below shows, Antarctic sea ice extent was at a record low for the time of the year on February 11, 2017.

The situation looks particularly grim for the Arctic sea ice. As the image below shows, Arctic sea ice extent on February 11, 2017, was also at a record low for the time of the year. In fact, it had fallen to 13,895,00 km² that day, raising the question whether perhaps the maximum for the year 2017 had already been reached.

Low global sea ice extent means that less sunlight is reflected back into space by the ice and that more heat is instead absorbed by the ocean, adding to the predicament the world is in. The situation in the Arctic is crucial, as huge amounts of methane, contained in sediments under the Arctic Ocean, could be released if warming continues, potentially triggering mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• Climate Plan
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Extinction
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• How much warming have humans caused?
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/05/how-much-warming-have-humans-caused.html

• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html

Tuesday, 17 January 2017

Global sea ice extent falling off chart

Global sea ice extent is falling off the chart, as illustrated by the image below.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) is one of the world’s best-know archives for satellite data on sea ice.

In its recent news release, NSIDC notes that the difference between the 1981-2010 average global sea ice extent and the 2016 extent was over 4 million km² in mid-November 2016 (image on the right).

The fall in sea ice extent constitutes a huge amount of energy that is no longer reflected back into space and is instead absorbed by the ocean, the atmosphere and by the process of melting itself.

In line with earlier calculations by Professor Peter Wadhams, a 4 million km² sea ice decrease could equate to a radiative forcing of as much as 1.3 W/m². All this extra energy does not directly translate into a rise in temperature of the atmosphere, since a lot of energy has over the past few decades been absorbed by the ocean and has also gone into the process of melting itself. However, it now looks like the temperature of the atmosphere is catching up fast, as illustrated by the image below.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

On the right is a forecast by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

It shows that we’ve barely been in a La Niña, which typically makes the atmosphere cooler than it would otherwise have been.

Already now, another El Niño is on the way that could soon make it up to 2.5°C warmer than it is was late last year.

Global sea ice volume is also at record low, as illustrated by the image below on the right.

Arctic sea ice thickness hit a record low in November 2016 when thickness fell below 0.7 m or 2.3 ft.

As the ice gets thinner, the risk of collapse grows, as increasingly stronger winds and storms and stronger wave action can more easily break up thin sea ice, making it more vulnerable to melting and to get carried out of the Arctic Ocean by stronger cyclonic winds and stronger exit currents.

Disappearance of Arctic sea ice increases the risk of huge methane releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. The outlook is terrifying. As I calculated last year, surface temperatures of the atmosphere could rise by some 10°C or 18°F within a decade, i.e. by 2026.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• Climate Plan
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Extinction
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• How much warming have humans caused?
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/05/how-much-warming-have-humans-caused.html

Thursday, 3 September 2015

As 2015 smashes temperature records, it's hotter than you think

by David Spratt

Spanish version

There is an El Niño in full swing which helps push average global temperatures higher, and records are being broken, but just how hot is it? For several years, we have heard that global warming has pushed temperatures higher by around 0.8 to 0.85 degrees Celsius (°C).

But in 2015, that number is not even close.

Even before this year’s strong El Niño developed, 2015 was a hot year. The first few months of the year broken records for the hottest corresponding period in previous years all the way back to the start of the instrumental record in 1880. Each month, new records fell.

With the July data in, NOAA, the US Government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, reported that July was the hottest month among the 1627 months on record since 1880, and the first seven months of the year was the hottest January-July on record:

The July average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 0.81°C above the 20th century average. As July is climatologically the warmest month for the year, this was also the all-time highest monthly temperature in the 1880-2015 record, at 16.61°C, surpassing the previous record set in 1998 by 0.08°C.

The July globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 0.75°C above the 20th century average. This was the highest temperature for any month in the 1880-2015 record, surpassing the previous record set in July 2014 by 0.07°C. The global value was driven by record warmth across large expanses of the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

The year-to-date temperature combined across global land and ocean surfaces was 0.85°C above the 20th century average. This was the highest for January-July in the 1880-2015 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2010 by 0.09°C.

In addition the year-to-date globally-averaged land surface temperature beat the previous record in 2007 by a whopping 0.15°C, and the year-to-date globally-averaged sea surface temperature surpassed the previous record of 2010 by 0.06°C. Every major ocean basin observed record warmth in some areas.

And, as Joe Romm has reported, “It was especially hot for the 6 billion of us up here in the northern hemisphere, where the first seven months of 2015 were a remarkable 0.3°F (0.17°C) warmer than the first seven months of any year on record — and nearly a half degree Fahrenheit warmer than any year before 2007”.

El Niño may be strongest on record

So this year, records are not being broken. They are being smashed, as a strong El Niño (and perhaps the strongest on record) is set to persist through to 2016. El Niño conditions are characterised by a warm band of water across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and facilitate the transfer of heat from the ocean surface layer to the atmosphere and are associated with a hotter climate.

The NOAA’s most recent El Niño update (Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 17 August 2015) reports that:

All multi-model averages suggest that El Niño 3.4 will be above +1.5ºC (a “strong” El Niño) during late 2015 into early 2016.

(El Niño 3.4 is the zone of longitudes 120 to 150W along the equatorial Pacific Ocean).

As the chart above illustrates, the projected strength of the El Niño (yellow line) is slightly above the previous strongest such event in 1997 (red dots).

So hot will 2015 be? The NOAA has already reported that the first seven months of the year was almost 0.1°C above the previous record. This is a huge amount in a field where changes are often measured in one-hundredths of a degree.

With a 90% chance of the El Niño persisting into 2016, it is as close as a certain bet can be that 2015 will be the hottest year on the instrumental record.

And there is probably an even-money chance that the margin will exceed 0.1°C. This would be an incredible result with scientists shocked at the margin by which records are being broken. Former NASA climate science chief James Hansen says:

We can already predict that the 2015 global temperature will exceed the prior warmest year (2014) by an unusually wide margin (~ 0.1°C), exceeding 1998 (“El Niño of the century”) even further.

And there is a good chance that 2016 will beat 2015 to become the hottest year on record.

It’s hotter than you think

But much hotter has it got already? The convention is to talk about the amount of warming “above pre-industrial”, that is, before the steam-and-coal industrial revolution, around 1750.

But the instrumental record used by the major agencies in the US, the UK and Japan does not start till 1880, and it is this period that is often used to provide a “pre-industrial” baseline. So when we hear that warming so far up to (the average of) the last decade as being 0.8°C or 0.85°C, it is the warming from a 1880 baseline (see light green column in figure below of 0.87°C, based on the NOAA dataset since 1880).

But the climate around 1750 and 1880 were not the same. Research using proxy data and modelling shows that between 1750 and 1880 the global average temperature increased by ~0.2°C.

When that is added (dark green column), we find that the real warming from pre-industrial 1750 to the average of the last decade is 1.07°C. It is a shock to see that we are more than half way to the unsafe 2°C “guardrail” favoured by international policy-makers.

The warming over 1750 pre-industrial to 2014 was 1.17°C.

And for the first seven months of 2015, the margin is a staggering 1.26°C higher than the pre-industrial level. Yes, it is a strong El Niño period, and it may drop back for a short while, but 2016 could be just as hot and we may be entering a new phase of accelerated warming.

Greenhouse emissions continue to soar to record levels, and attempts to clean up and retire some of the world’s dirtiest coal power plants may result in a lowering of the production of aerosols (including black-carbon soot, organic carbon, sulphates, nitrates, as well as dust from smoke, manufacturing and windstorms) which at the moment provide a temporary (~1 week) cooling of 0.8-1°C.

The leading climate researcher Michael E. Mann says that as fossil fuel use is curtailed, the aerosol cooling impact will lessen. Mann says that “if the world burns significantly less coal…we would have to limit CO2 to below roughly 405 ppm”, a level we will reach in two years.

A climate emergency requiring levels of action far beyond anything that is currently perceived by policy makers? As temperatures soar to record levels and it is hotter than most people understand, you can bet on that.

Earlier posted at ClimateCodeRed.org

As 2015 smashes temperature records, it’s hotter than you think | by David Spratt http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/09/as-2015-smashes-temperature-records-its-hotter-than-you-think.html
Posted by Sam Carana on Thursday, September 3, 2015

Friday, 9 May 2014

Outlook for sea ice remains bleak

In April 2014, Arctic sea ice reached its annual maximum volume. It was the second lowest on record, according to calculations by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center. The ice volume in March 2014 also was the second lowest on record, as discussed in an earlier post. The fall in volume over the years is illustrated in the graph below, by Wipneus.

Another way of depicting the continuing fall in sea ice volume is the Arctic Death Spiral below, by Andy Lee Robinson.

The graph below, from the Danish Metereological Institute, shows mean temperatures that have been much higher than they used to be at higher latitudes. Mean 2 m temperatures for the region north of the 80th northern parallel as a function of the day of year are shown (red line), against the 1958 - 2002 mean (green line).

High levels of methane over the Arctic will have contributed to these high temperatures. Furthermore, the Jet Stream is changing as the difference in temperature between the Arctic and the equator decreases, causing more extreme weather events such as heatwaves and storms that could speed up the demise of snow and ice cover in the Arctic.

The graph below, by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, shows that Arctic sea ice extent was 12,469,546 km² on May 8, 2014.

In addition, an El Niño event could cause even more ferocious heatwaves and storms to hit the Arctic. The image below, from IRI at Columbia University, shows that the chance of an El Niño event developing in the course of 2014 is close to 80%.

The outlook for the sea ice remains bleak and the possibility that a total collapse could occur in September calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the climate plan blog.

Post by Sam Carana.

Friday, 7 April 2017

Gulf Stream is heating up

Thursday, 16 February 2017

More heat on the way

Tuesday, 17 January 2017

Global sea ice extent falling off chart

Thursday, 3 September 2015

As 2015 smashes temperature records, it's hotter than you think

Friday, 9 May 2014

Outlook for sea ice remains bleak

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